Factores que afectam a tomada de decisão
DIS4ME editor: Jane Brandt <desertlinks@medalus.demon.co.uk>

g Workshop overview
Author: Constantinos Kosmas <lsos2kok@aua.gr>

(This overview is an extract from a much fuller report written for the DESERTLINKS project "Driving forces and pressure indicators: decision-making by local stakeholders" edited by Constantinos Kosmas).

Planning sustainable land use in areas sensitive to desertification is an important action for combating desertification and has been given a high priority in the Annex IV National Action Programmes. Land use decision-making by the farmers is affected by various environmental, physical, social, economic, institutional and cultural factors. The objective of this workshop was to identify the influences on land use decision-making by landowners (individuals or collectives) at the local level and which are important for promoting sustainable land use.

Four separate workshops were held in Mertola, Guadalentin, Agri and Lesvos but all followed the same basic structure. Participants included land managers, policy makers, researchers, representatives from the media and NGOs, and local farmers. The workshops' programme started with an analysis of the causes and impacts of land use change on desertification using the results of research projects conducted in the local area. The presentations were followed by a discussion of 30-50 minutes. At the end, a structured questionnaire was circulated to the participants in order to identify the major forces and processes involved in land use decision-making and accounting for the observed environmental effects. The questionnaire included macro and some micro-factors affecting land use such as environmental, physical, management, demographic and social, economic, policy rleated and cultural attitudes.

The combined results of questionnaires from each workshop are reported here.

The difference in the level of importance the participants attached to the decision-making factors to some extent reflects the local characteristics of each area. For example level of mechanisation is in the top five factors in the Alentejo. In the first half of the 1980's Portugal has the lowest mechanisation level in Europe. Even though later the number of tractors more than doubled due to EU aid, the level still remains low. In the Guadalentín and Lesvos, tourism features in the top five factors. In both areas tourism has a high impact in terms of its use of resources and its dominance of the local economy. Availability of water for irrigation is the only factor which features in the top five in all areas.

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g Mértola Workshop, 31 Outubro 2003
Autor: Maria José Roxo <mj.roxo@iol.pt>

A workshop teve lugar na Herdade de Vale Formoso, no Concelho de Mértola, e foi organizada em estreita colaboração da Sub-Comissão Regional do Alentejo de Coordenação do Programa de Acção Nacional de Combate à Desertificação, Direcção Regional de Agricultura do Alentejo e Comissão de Coordenação e Desenvolvimento Regional do Alentejo.

Estiveram presentes mais de 70 pessoas, entre agricultores, técnicos, estudantes universitários (cursos relacionados com a agricultura e desenvolvimento regional), e decisores políticos. A sessão iniciou-se com a apresentação de exposições por parte de especialistas sobre a temática “Boas Práticas Agrícolas, Silvícolas e Pecuárias no Contexto da Margem Esquerda do Guadiana”, a que se seguiu um amplo e animado debate, sobre os factores que afectam a decisão em termos de uso do solo.

Participantes durante a pausa para café – Escola Primária de Vale Formoso (foto de M. J. Roxo)

No final da Workshop, foi igualmente distribuído o inquérito elaborado por Constantinos Kosmas, que não foi respondido pela totalidade dos presentes (apenas 41) e cujos resultados se apresentam na abaixo.

Resultados do inquérito em %.

É fácil de observar no gráfico, que os principais factores que influenciam o processo de decisão sobre o uso do solo, são as questões relacionadas com a água, o emprego, o nível de mecanização, e em função do estado de degradação actual do recursos naturais, devido às práticas agrícolas utilizadas, as questões ambientais.

• Disponibilidade de água para irrigação (93%) - Os participantes da workshop, identificaram a disponibilidade de água para irrigação, como o factor mais determinante no processo de tomada de decisão, no concelho de Mértola. Apesar predominarem nesta área do Baixo Alentejo, culturas de sequeiro (cereais) e a criação de gado (produção de leguminosas para forragens), o incentivo a culturas mais rentáveis caso da oliveira e pomares de amendoeiras, tem motivado a construção de pequenas barragens e a abertura de furos para obtenção de água subterrânea. Recentemente, têm assistido a uma mudança no tipo de uso de solo, sobretudo nas áreas mais planas de fundo de vale. A fraca disponibilidade de recursos hídricos do Concelho foi, sucessivamente, apontada pelos stakeholders, como um factor limitativo ao desenvolvimento. No entender dos agricultores a barragens do Alqueva, devia fornecer água a esta área e ser um “motor” para a melhoria da economia do País.
  
• Disponibilidade de emprego (91%) – Foram referidas neste contexto dois aspectos importantes, por um lado a falta de falta de emprego, por não haver dinamismo empresarial, baseado nos recursos endógenos, o que está na origem de movimentos migratórios para os meios urbanos, a migração é referida apenas por 42% dos inquiridos, e por outro a falta de mão–de-obra para os trabalhos agrícolas. Os trabalhos na agricultura são considerados mal pagos pelas camadas mais jovens, pelo que se tem recorrer muitas vezes ao o emprego paralelo (44%), igualmente mencionado.
• Questões ambientais (88%) – É notória, uma cada vez maior preocupação com as questões ambientais, com particular incidência para a poluição da água e erosão dos solos. Contudo, ainda não são notórias as mudanças de comportamento no sentido de modificar usos ou práticas. O facto de parte do Concelho de Mértola estar integrado no Parque Natural do Vale do Guadiana, tem limitado e impedido, determinadas utilizações do solo nocivas à conservação e preservação dos habitats naturais e ecossistemas.
• Características climáticas (88%) - Um aspecto a realçar é a importância que é dada às características climáticas. Como se sabe, a irregularidade do regime das chuvas, anual e interanual, bem como a extensão do período seco (média 4 meses no ano), que caracteriza o clima mediterrâneo, na favorece a agricultura e em muitos casos é o responsável por grandes prejuízos económicos, principalmente, quando ocorrem anos muito secos ou anos muito chuvosos. Assim, a ocorrência de catástrofes naturais (65%) foram igualmente apontadas, como factores que podem influenciar no processo de decisão. As questões climáticas preocupam cada vez mais os agricultores, que revelam preferência por espécies que são endógenas deste tipo de clima. Um exemplo concreto é a criação de espécies de gado endógeno, caso da ovelha campaniça ou da raça bovina mertolenga, melhor adaptadas às condições climáticas.
• A questão da mecanização e a utilização de tecnologia inovadora continua a ser um dos problemas desta área do Baixo Alentejo. A maioria dos agricultores está num escalão etário de superior a 50 anos, o que faz com que sejam pouco adeptos da inovação ou de novas técnicas. Muitas vezes consideram novos investimentos em mecanização de difícil amortização. Os números que se apresentam são bem elucidativos do grau de mecanização no Concelho de Mértola. Contudo, ligadas à mecanização estão as práticas agrícolas (60%), sendo estas responsáveis pelo elevado estado de degradação, desertificação, em que se encontra esta área do Baixo Alentejo.
  

Número de tractores

• Políticas (79%) - Outro factor mencionado com destaque é a questão dos subsídios e da implicação da Politica Agrícola Comum. Esta é considerada, com sendo uma das principais responsáveis pelas decisões que são tomadas pelos agricultores. Contudo, estes são muito críticos, na forma como o Governo e as Instituições governamentais, procedem à sua implementação, bem como à divulgação e acompanhamento das medidas. Têm consciência da necessidade de mais e melhor informação, uma vez que sabem que muitas vezes optam por técnicas e práticas menos “amigas” do Ambiente. São notórias, as transformações no uso do solo, motivadas pelas sucessivas medidas de apoio à agricultura. A mais recente e visível no Concelho foi a da reconversão de terras agrícolas em florestais, através de subsídios à reflorestação. Os milhares de hectares plantados com pinheiro manso (Pinus pinea), em vez da plantação de espécies endógenas como os Quercus, são um exemplo concreto do que foi anteriormente referido.
• As características do solo (77%) - São também consideradas como determinantes nas mudanças de uso do solo, e como factor decisivo na escolha do uso. Os agricultores têm conhecimento, que os solos que possuem são solos marginais de fraca ou nula aptidão agrícola. No entanto, o incentivo cada vez maior, por parte das empresas de fertilizantes, tem aumentado o consumo destes produtos, anulando em grande parte a falta de fertilidade natural. A questão da qualidade dos solos só é encara com maior preocupação, quando se pretende produzir culturas mais exigentes, ou por exemplo pastagens irrigadas.
• Preço dos produtos (70%) – Esta questão, é considerada importante para os stakeholders, uma vez que a produção de cereais, têm sido sempre intervencionada, mas a criação de gado depende muitíssimo do preço e características do mercado, sendo este aspecto assinalado por 60%, dos indivíduos. A oscilação dos preços e a procura são factores que influenciam a decisão e consequentemente a pressão os sobre recursos naturais. Um exemplo concreto, tem sido os preços atingidos, em função do mercado, dos produtos de porco preto, o que tem provocado uma intensa exploração dos “montados” e o aumento o número de suínos. Em consequência, observa-se uma mudança do estado de abandono de vastas áreas do Concelho, sendo agora utilizadas para pastagens.
• Desenvolvimento turístico (65%) – Este tema surge com algum destaque associado a algum desenvolvimento feito a nível de equipamentos e promoção do Concelho nos últimos anos. No entanto, só agora se começam a observar pequenas mudanças no tecido empresarial, relacionadas com esta actividade, e algumas repercussões em termos de uso do solo, com a transformação de propriedade tradicionais para propriedades especializadas em serviços, como a caça. Nestas situações a produção agrícola deixa de ser o objectivo, e investe-se em práticas e em repovoamentos vegetais que favoreçam a fauna selvagem. É importante salientar que o desenvolvimento turístico do Concelho, pode aumentar os problemas já existentes, em relação ao consumo e escassez de água.
• A dimensão, forma e fragmentação da propriedade (63%) – É considerado um factor importante no processo de decisão de mudança. A verdade é que em função da qualidade dos solos, que são muito pobres (fraca ou nula aptidão agrícola) a dimensão da propriedade é importante.
• Desenvolvimento técnico (60%) – A introdução de novas culturas e consequentemente de novos usos do solo, implica o conhecimento e domínio de técnicas e práticas agrícolas específicas, o que nem sempre acontece. A não existência de um serviço público de extensão agrícola é apontado pelos stakeholders, como uma das razões para as más decisões que muitas vezes são tomadas em termos de uso do solo.
• Preferências na alimentação e Infra-estruturas (58%) – Ambos os factores foram mencionados como importantes, em função da especificidade da produção desta área do Baixo Alentejo. Foi dado como exemplo, o facto da população jovem consumir cada vez menos carne de ovino, um dos principais produtos deste Concelho. Em termos de infra-estruturas, a questão da acessibilidade é a mais referida. Fraca acessibilidade, implica uma enorme dificuldade no escoamento dos produtos, e um isolamento, que não favorece o desenvolvimento local nem regional. Refira-se que o Concelho de Mértola tem ficado à margem de todas as principais vias de comunicação, com Espanha e das ligações mais directas entre o Sul e Norte de Portugal.
• Posse da terra, tamanho do agregado familiar e rendimento (47%, 40%) – São para os stakeholders, os factores menos determinante na tomada de decisão em relação às mudanças de uso do solo.
  

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g Guadalentín Workshop, 19 June 2003
Author: Jorge García Gómez <jorgegg@um.es>

The workshop was attended by 15 people, representatives from public administration, scientists, farmers' unions and cooperatives, university researchers and technicians. Initially an open discussion focused on factors affecting land use changes and then turned to what indicators were relevant to land use decisions and changes.

The indicators agreed upon were as follows:

• Farm income. Farm income is one of the main issues affecting decisions taken by the farmers. It determines whether farming activities are continued or abandoned and decision- making about the land use.
  
• Total gross margin (per unit area). This is another way of expressing the Farm income indicator, but here it is more farm-specific because the gross margin changes depending on the farm conditions (water availability, hillslopes, soil conditions…).
• Land management options. A basic indicator because different land uses determine the decisions that can be made about land use.
• Availability of water. Water, especially in a region where it is scarce, is a key factor in understanding land use and decision-making by farmers.
• National Hydrological Plan (PHN). The Spanish PHN has created expectations about the increase of water availability for agriculture, changing the possibilities for land use in the short or medium term. It could be seen as a driving force, rather than an indicator.
• Infrastructure. When an area is easily accessible there are more options for different land uses.
• Population increase. Population increase changes the value of land for some particular uses.
• Common Agricultural Policy (at a regional level, the expenditure on environmental measures in agriculture). CAP, its subsidies, is the main driving force of farming decisions in many farms.
• Farming as the main activity (% of time dedicated to farming activities and/or family income from the farming activity). Whether a farmer works full or part-time has influence on the approach to the land uses in the area. The attachment to the land, the effort made and the interest in the farm have an influence on the decision making.
• Climatic conditions (climatic change, temperatures, rainfall). Climatic change, especially in areas with water scarcity, affects possible land uses.
• Technological innovation. Technological innovation makes some land uses feasible that were not before. Hence it has an influence on land use decision.

The participants did not find it easy to approach to the selection and definition of indicators. Among those selected, farm income is one of the main driving forces for land use decisions and changes. The farmer tries to optimize his actions to provide the maximum net income per area. Access to water is one of the most important determinant factors since, if access is possible and even though a high level of investment is required, farmers will choose irrigation farming, even though the soil conditions are not very suitable for it. This preference is determined by the big difference in the benefits obtained from irrigation and dry farming (due mainly to climatic conditions). To this effect, PHN is of great importance, especially regarding the possible transfer of water form the Ebro River to the south basins, since the farmers think it is possible to get more water resources. The subsidy policies in the CAP programmes also play an important role because , in some cultivations, subsidies are an important part of the net farm income. Another aspect to take into account is the time that every farmer dedicates to working at farming. Increasingly farming is becoming a part-time activity because of the low incomes achieved by the farmers and the difficulties they have to face in their activity, because of competition from industrial farming with its greater capacity for technological innovation. The increase in population and tourism makes necessary more infrastructures and land use changes. All these driving forces act in the vacuum of a non-existent land management policy managed by the public administration. Such a policy should be in place to organize the land uses in the area.

Conclusions. Soil as a resource is being lost. Society is detached from the rural areas and the rural culture and ways of life are disappearing. Sensitivity to nature, is being lost. The rural development policies are no more than a poor substitute. Competitiveness is the determinant factor and environment degradation is increasing. The university and the public administration are not in touch with the farms nor the daily realities of the farmers. Degradation processes are not key factors, a different method of management is necessary in the face of land uses changing from sustainable to unsustainable uses. There are two different models: agrobusiness on one side and small and medium farmers on the other. These farmers are at risk of extinction. If this process continues, in the end there will be only big agrobusiness, with a very high intensification level, will remain in the rural world. To keep the environment in good condition farmers are necessary, and to keep them we have to redefine the concept of profitability. Social farming, small-scale farming, is necessary. The rural sector must be taken into account and new planning, that includes land restoration measures, must be developed. In addition, research activity must be oriented to the farmer's needs and a real land management policy.

Regarding the selection of indicators, net farm income is the major driving force for land use decisions. The availability of water is the most important determinant the choice of dry or irrigation farming. Dry farming is much less profitable. Irrigation farming is very intensified and achieves high productivity. Climatic conditions are also very important in land use decisions, since the frequent droughts lead to increasing marginal land uses if access to water is not possible. Small farmers are being replaced by the big agrobusiness and this is determining the land uses. Inappropriate land use exacerbates the land degradation problems caused by natural and climatic conditions.

g Agri workshop, 25 July 2003
Authors: Giovanni Quaranta - Rosanna Salvia <quaranta@unibas.it>

The 3rd  Focus Group Workshop in Val D’Agri was organized on the 25th of July 2003. There were 26 stakeholders participating in the workshop plus the organizers. Through the local press a wide exposure to the workshop was given both during the days beforehand and the day itself. In order to assure a better participation above all by farmers (who are generally recognized to be more reluctant to take part in meetings) a good collaboration was established between the research group of the University of Basilicata and Agia (a Young Farmers' Association). In fact, farmers represent the main land users and through their activity they influence land degradation processes. This function acquires more importance if placed within a common agricultural policy scenario in which farmers are given an increased role in the action of maintaining and safeguard natural resources. This collaboration promoted the participation of a good number of farmers and increased the attention level for the workshop. In fact the association gave emphasis to the workshop, promoting it among its members both at local and national level, publishing a communication conveniently written on the national website. Workshop participation, with an active involvement expected during all of its phases, was spread from young farmers to local and regional institution representatives and also to tourist operators, craftsmen and  members of  non-governmental associations from the region. The aim was to create a work environment where participants felt free to express their own opinions and to become integrated in an open and constructive way to the discussion.

List of participants attending the workshop

Discussion on the determining factors of desertification and pressures started with issues identified in DESERTLINKS as facets of desertification in the Mediterranean Basin. In fact, the opportunity was taken to show the participants the work done by the project to date to stakeholders in order to direct the discussion more towards specific problems. Two sub-groups were formed (socio-economic and environmental) and the participants were asked to discuss the driving forces and pressures relating to the issues.

During the second part of the day, attention was focused on the identification of candidate indicators that could express and quantify driving forces and pressures already discussed. At the same time, participants were asked to provide their opinion and position with respect to the principal list of questions from the farm survey (a) to identify the macro-factors affecting land use decision-making, and (b) to define candidate indicators of driving forces and pressures (already identified).

A questionnaire (common to all this series of workshops) concerning land use change decision-making was prepared and distributed to the workshop. It included possible factors affecting land use change and was related to the physical environment, market characteristics, labour availability, land tenure, infrastructure, product price, skills and traditions, food preference and tourism development. Together with this first list of macro factors, stakeholders were invited to also evaluate the candidate indicators which had been measured in the field during the farm surveys. In addition participants were given the opportunity to express their opinion on the validity (high, medium or low) of the indicators.

Frequency of preference for the various desertification indicators by the participants in the Agri workshop

The desertification indicators considered most important were these.

• The participants identified deforestation as the most significant driving force for Val D’Agri. If this indicator is linked to the forest fire frequency indicator (92%) importance of forest management in the definition of country planning and its stability is immediately clear.
• The indicators that reflect the consumption and quality of water reflect more or less sustainable resource management. The emphasis on water is derived from precariousness of storage rather than from water availability itself. Infrastructural gaps and delays as well as competence conflict in management are responsible for inequitable water distribution in the region and among the productive sectors.
• Gross margin per hectare (92%) and change in land use (UAA change, 92%) establish the degree of overexploitation and the kind of land management. Both these factors could be also considered as desertification impact indicators because they reflect land productivity decrease, but the information they provide is influenced by input use, market conditions and policy protection level.
• Dynamics that concern tourist sector (88%). Tourist flow increase, and above all seasonal arrivals, have a high impacts on the region in terms of increase in water consumption andwaste production.
• For agricultural practices, the most important factors that were considered as driving forces for erosion and soil quality are ploughing depth (84%), fertilizers application, (84%) and the full number of farming with tractors (80%). Ploughing direction (64%) is considered as a less important factor  to explain land degradation processes.
• Farm structural characteristics (size of farm parcels (80%), number of farm parcels (76%), farm size (76%)) explain desertification becaue they determined the degree of mechanization and, more generally, resource use intensity. Land ownership (60%) was considered less important.
• Subsidies (80%), especially in dry areas, determine production choice and thus land use. Their effect is ambiguous. On one hand, they allow farmers to stay on the land, assuring a sufficient level of income. On the other, they cause degradation processes on the same land. Take wheat subsidies as an example. Farmers were encouraged to cultivate crops less suitable for the area, often to the detriment of scrub and forest, using aggressive farming techniques.
• Change in livestock (84%) rather than the number of head per hectare (76%) were considered important factors in desertification. Lack of manpower and market difficulties for livestock products determined a strong decrease of breeding activities with severe effects at local level. Organic matter contributions, linked to manure management, were considered important to maintain good quality land levels.
• Farmer age (80%) influences productive choices and management strategies. Very often lack of continuity between generations causes less attention to be given to maintaining the productive function of the farm. Population change (76%) and parallel employment (72%) are related to this indicator because they identify processes directed to a progressive degradation of social texture and decrease of energies and resources in the agricultural sector and consequently to protecting the environment.
• Family size, 56%, is the indicator considered less decisive in influencing desertification processes of the territory.

Factors affecting land use change decision-making

In the last seventy years, land use evolution has mostly been driven by economic conditions and market opportunities.

Land use evolution for each of the 6 ESA classes. A clear correlation is shown between degradation risk and use of resources. There is also a positive trend where the risk is more tangible (C2).

Frequency of preferences for the various possible factors affecting land use decision making in the Agri stakeholder group

According to the results obtained from the questionnaire the major factors affecting land use change are infrastructure and climate characteristics.

• Infrastructures, road communication and population services improve the quality of life of local communities and assure market access. If this information is considered together with the importance given to factors related to market characteristics (proximity, local/external, exchange volume, etc.), it appears clear that stakeholders consider the region's ability to communicate externally is a driving force to remove social and economic conditions that are often associated with rural areas. These factors also affect migratory dynamics that operate in these areas and which are progressively impoverishing the social texture.
• Climatic conditions (rainfall, air temperature, evapotranspiration and winds). The Agri Basin has a cool temperate Mediterranean climate, with strong differences from the coastline to the inland mountains. The inland countryside has a cooler climate and summer rainfall of over 150 mm in contrast to the coast's less than 100 mm. Summer is characterised by a strong drought and a mean monthly temperature of more than 23°C, in the warmest months.
  
• This variability is obviously reflected in crop choices, and it is related with another factor considered of extreme importance, water. High income irrigated farmingis focused in lowlands while dry farming is typical of hill and piedmont areas. During the last ten years many dams were built for water storage for different purposes, but the considerable reduction of winter and autumn rainfall has caused a serious lack of water availability. This problem especially affects the agricultural sector which uses up to 70% of the water resources. In the whole Basilicata Region it has been estimated that the lack of water for the agricultural sector is around 70 Mcm and the total irrigated area in the Agri Basin is 11,220 hectares. The drought effects are strongly aggravated by inefficient management of the water resources that has heavily reduced its availability.
• Technical skills. The introduction of new farming techniques requires specialised knowledge of the farmer. However services offering technical advice are inadequate to guide the farmers in their farming choices. Added to this, over recent years young people have invested their resources and enery in other productive sectors.

After this first group of factors of importance for determining land use change there is another group

• Land characteristics. Changes are such as switching to other crops and stone removal, are very expensive and not justified given the low income from the crops. In the coastal areas, progressive land salinization begins to influence the choice of species planted, and to determine the choice of root stocks for arboreal crops.
• Land properties are strictly related also with the level of mechanization. Soil texture determines the use of particular agricultural equipment.
• Lack of labour availability in the agricultural is increasing the level of mechanization.
• Crops income, identified through market price and European subsidies. The influence of market price decreases from irrigated farming to dry farming where income is mostly derived from subsidies.
• Farm size and economic performance. Clearly the richest farms are those that can better invest in technology, react to changes in competition, and borrow additional funds.
• Tourist development, migration, manpower availability. Internal and external migration, emphasized by the concentration of productive activities in coastal areas, are above all related to the tourist sector and have deeply influenced the demography  of internal rural areas. Progressive ageing of the farmers tends to lead to low intensity forms of use. Manpower availability is becoming the limiting factor in the livestock sector and for orchards and horticultural crops. Importing labour from outside the EU is a strategy being adopted by farms in order to maintain the more intensive productions.
• Land value. In coastal areas the development of sectors such as tourism has increased the price of land, generating a strong competition in land use.  In internal areas the land market is quite static with unchanging values, both for their real estate characteristics and for the capitalization processes starting from PAC application that linked founding to land and activated transfer rights.
• Land tenure, food preferences and parallel employment were considered of minor importance in land use change decision-making.  

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g Lesvos workshop, 17 to 18 June 2004
Author: Constantinos Kosmas <lsos2kok@aua.gr>

The workshop included land managers and policy makers drawn from the local community. During the workshop, the various speakers analyzed the causes and impacts of land use change on desertification using the results of research projects conducted in the area. Each presentation was followed by a discussion of 30-50 minutes. At the end, a structured questionnaire was prepared and administered to the participants in which they were asked to provide their opinion and stance with respect to the principal list of questions presented in the farm survey and to identify the major forces and processes involved in land use decision making and accounting for the observed environmental effects.

Frequency of preference by the stakeholders in Lesvos for the various possible factors affecting land use change decision-making.

According to the results obtained from the questionnaire, the principal factor affecting the decision for land use change was product prices. Low prices of the main products of the island, such as olive oil and milk, affected land use and land management. The main consequence of the reduction in product prices is land abandonment. This leads, in turn, to the collapse of terraces in olive groves or to renting of land to other farmers. Olive oil prices have dropped by more than a half in the last 15 years. This has severely affected the protection of land against erosion. Also, the low prices of animal products (meat and milk) have led to a significant increase of the animal population in order to increase farmer’s net income. This has resulted in a change of land use from abandoned agricultural land to pasture.

Other factors considered important in affecting decision making about land use change were these.

Climatic characteristics (such as rainfall, air temperature, evapotranspiration, and wind). A rainfall gradient exists from east (725 mm rain) to west (415 mm) on the island. Wind speed is usually twice as high in the western part of the island compared to the eastern part. Such climatic characteristics were seriously considered by the local people when making land use change decisions. For example olives or other agricultural crops are not easily grown in the western part of the island due to high water deficit and damage of the trees by the strong winds.

Water available for irrigation. Crops such as vegetables, fruits, alfalfa (used as forage) which require high amounts of irrigation water were preferred, because they increased the net income per hectare compared to other rainfed crops. Farmers can change to cultivation of irrigated crops only if water is available. Recently, efforts have been made to construct water reservoirs in various places on the island. If irrigation water becomes available, several changes in land use types will probably occur, mainly in the lowlands.

Change in land value. Tourism development and the expansion of urban areas in the last decades have affected land value at certain locations in the island. In some cases, the value of agricultural land increased dramatically when land was subject to urban pressures. In such cases, major changes in land use occurred. Productive agricultural land has been converted to urban developed land. Similar changes have occurred also due to tourism development. Tourism development was considered as an important factor having almost the same score as change in land value.

Market characteristics (such as proximity to markets, domestic or international market demands and market size). The main products (olive oil, milk and meat) are brought to the local market or to the main national markets without significant product quality risks. Milk is locally processed into cheese and can be preserved for transportation over long distances. Also forage production is essential for the island due to the large number of animals, but its production is limited due to adverse soil and climatic conditions and lack of available irrigation water.

Environmental issues. Increasingly, people have become more sensitive to environmental issues (ground water pollution, soil erosion) because of increasing awareness and publicity of such problems by the mass media. Furthermore, areas of great ecological importance such as the Kaloni bay and the petrified forest have been incorporated in NATURA and are subjected to limitations in agricultural development.

Policy interventions. These included actions such as: (a) subsidies for certain land use types, (b) support measures for young farmers, (c) decrease in the amount of production for certain crops such as wine and tobacco, (d) provision of public service for providing scientific knowledge for new products and new techniques on crop production. Subsidies have largely affected the expansion of pastures in abandoned land and the protection of olive groves in hilly areas.

Migration to urban areas. Migration usually results in land abandonment or the renting of the land to other farmers who usually use it for pasture. Migration was closely related to product prices and to net farmer’s income. Under the adverse economic conditions prevailing in the island during recent decades, migration of people to urban areas was one of the main ways for improving living conditions.

Farm fragmentation (in combination with adverse soil, topographic and climatic conditions). As the number of parcels in each farm increased, land use often remained unchanged. When a farm was divided in several parcels, distributed in various locations, farmer used to allocate land uses according to the land productivity and not changing it for long periods.

Soil characteristics (such as soil depth, slope gradient, drainage). Farmers know that degraded lands with shallow soils overlying consolidated bedrock cannot be used for productive agriculture. Terraces have been built in past centuries in hilly areas with shallow soils by transporting soil from other places and concentrating it into the terrace to support the olive trees. Land use change in such areas is not easily achieved without destruction of the terraces. Furthermore, mechanization of cultivation in hilly areas with steep slopes has not been possible, leading to land use change. Also deep, poorly drained soils on alluvial plains must exclusively be used for annual crops.

Available labour (especially in the last decade). The massive rural to urban migration in recent decades has created a great scarcity of available labor for keeping animals, cultivating olives and engaging in local handicrafts. For example, good quality conserved figs used to be produced in the western part of the island. Today this production has dramatically decreased because of: (a) low available irrigation water and (b) lack of available labor for gathering figs. A serious problem exists also today for harvesting olives. The lack of available labor in combination with the low price of olive oil has resulted in abandonment or mismanagement of olive groves. Wine production, which was very important in the past, has dramatically declined due to lack of available labor and high market competition.

Infrastructure (such as available roads, medical centers, and factories for processing agricultural products). This issue has become very important considering that Lesvos is an island located about twelve hours distant from Athens by boat. Also the island is located on both national and European Union borders, adversely affecting processing of agricultural products. Therefore, opportunities for selection various land uses were limited.

Technical skills. Introduction of new crops requires knowledge of specific cultivation techniques by the farmers. Therefore, organization of the public agricultural service can largely affect introduction of new crops and new cultivation techniques.

Land tenure, food preferences, parallel employment, household size and income were considered by the stakeholders as having the lowest importance for land use change decision-making in the island of Lesvos.

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